Chapter 48: Dancing the Tango on the Edge of a Cliff!

"Hey you guys, what's wrong? Still feeling the effects of last night's drinks?"
In the office, Liang Haiyuan glanced around at his traders, each with dark circles under their eyes, looking dejected and listless, and couldn't help but ask.
The atmosphere was incredibly tense.
"Brother Haiyuan, don't joke around. Who was in the mood to drink last night?"
A young trader replied with a mournful face, his voice weak and listless.
Another trader's face was also full of grievance:
"You have no idea, just thinking about that made my hands shake like I have Parkinson's. I didn't sleep a wink all night!"
Liang Haiyuan knew exactly what was going on.
Who else could have scared these usually audacious guys like this, besides the bombshell dropped by their manager Su Hao at yesterday's dinner?
That guy, without batting an eye, announced: he wanted a full 250 million!
Play!
Short-term!
Trading!
250 million!
That's followed by eight zeros!
Not virtual currency, but real money!
Used for short-term trading!
Who could handle that?
"Sigh, it's all my fault for being so talkative! I shouldn't have brought up that Greek crisis..." someone started wailing, full of regret.
"Come on, give me a break," someone immediately poured cold water on the idea.
"Even if we don't mention it, knowing our manager's personality, do you think he'd let this opportunity slip by? He's probably already planned it all."
"Wait, guys... our manager... is he serious? Is he really going to use 250 million for short-term trading?"
The young man who initially complained couldn't help but chime in.
"Honestly, haven't we already exceeded our monthly, quarterly, and even annual performance targets hundreds of times over? Shouldn't this be the perfect time for everyone to relax, sit back, and count their money? Is it really necessary to work this hard?"
These words struck a chord with everyone present.
According to industry practice, once the trading department meets its performance targets,
unless the market is in a crazy, overheated bull run, the traders would have already packed up and gone home to enjoy life.
Who would still be toiling away in the office?
Rumor has it that every trader is a gambler in a suit.
This isn't untrue, because adventurous blood flows in their veins.
But what outsiders don't know is that these guys are incredibly shrewd.
Before achieving their performance targets, they're all as fierce as Lu Bu, charging through the market like butter, cutting through everything in their path.
But the moment the targets are met, "whoosh," they instantly switch to "wise maniac mode," transforming into leisurely vacation fanatics.
After all, who would be foolish enough to risk throwing away hard-earned money?
"...Our manager's body isn't made of ordinary stuff, is it?" someone whispered.
"I bet he's got the legendary 'heart of a beast.' His heart's made of titanium alloy!"
"Beast heart my foot! I bet he was never even programmed with the 'fear' emotion module!"
"Yeah! That's not 25 million, it's 250 million!! A whole 250 million!!!"
250 million.
That number, for the average person, let alone touching it, is enough to make them struggle to even imagine how huge it would be if piled up.
Even more critically, with such a large sum of money, any slightly aggressive maneuvering or risky move would immediately draw the attention of the exchange's real-time monitoring system, triggering alarms.
The next step would be a report to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), awaiting an inquiry.
It's like dancing the tango on the edge of a cliff; a slight misstep could cross that invisible regulatory red line.
A charge of "market manipulation" would be slapped on their heads, likely leading to jail time.
Even so, their manager, Su Hao!
Yesterday, he calmly and nonchalantly announced:
He was going to use 250 million!
To go wild!
"Tell me! With this kind of commotion! Who wouldn't tremble? Who wouldn't have a heart attack?!"
"By the way... hasn't the manager arrived yet?"
"He should be here soon, he's always punctual..."
Before the words were finished, the office door opened.
"Good morning, everyone."
Su Hao, their audacious and outspoken manager, strode in with a relaxed gait and a beaming smile.
Just look at his face!
Radiant, full of energy, not a single dark circle under his eyes!
Clearly, he'd had a good, uninterrupted sleep after last night's dinner party!
This was a stark and appalling contrast to the group of "zombies" in the office, trembling with fear of losing their entire fortune, sleepless nights, and with dark circles under their eyes.
Their inner monologues were flooding the room:
'Holy crap...this guy...is he a monster?'
'Is he some kind of alien in human form? Here to experience life on Earth?'
'I know, this is weird...I can't mess with him.'
Mortals simply cannot fathom such inhuman mental structures and psychological fortitude.
Inside the meeting room, Su Hao stood calmly before the whiteboard.
"Although the daily trading volume of the A-share market is currently around one trillion yuan, our funds, 250 million yuan, could still attract considerable attention if mishandled."
His voice was steady and clear, reaching everyone's ears.
He paused, then casually wrote a few numbers on the whiteboard:
"For small-cap stocks, like 'ST Zhongrun,' the daily trading volume is at most one or two hundred million yuan.
If we were to directly invest our 250 million yuan…
You can imagine what would happen? The stock price would probably skyrocket, and then we'd get an inquiry letter from the exchange!"
"Generally speaking, if a single account's trading volume in a single stock exceeds 5% to 10% of the total, it will trigger close monitoring by the exchange.
Then this matter might reach the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), and if it's deemed serious…"
He didn't finish his sentence, but everyone present was an industry insider and understood the subtext—
Suspected of stock price manipulation! That's no small matter!
Therefore, most private equity firms allocate most of their funds to relatively controllable risks in bonds and foreign exchange, or simply invest in overseas markets.
In the domestic market, once the scale of funds reaches a certain level, various unseen restrictions follow.
Su Hao raised his head, his gaze sweeping over the crowd: "What if we split the funds and diversify our purchases? Entering the market in small, frequent increments?"
“Theoretically feasible,” Liang Haiyuan replied, frowning.
“But the problem is, even if it's broken down into hundreds or thousands of orders, as long as they flow out from the same account system within our seven departments, they'll still be labeled 'under close scrutiny' by the exchange's system.
No matter how well disguised, in their eyes, it's still a clear suspicion of being a 'major player,' easily identified as acting in concert!”
A typical trading team can only mobilize an average of 50 million yuan at a time.
They're now throwing in 250 million yuan in one go, several times that amount. With that kind of scale, it's impossible not to attract attention; it's like fireflies in the dark, blindingly bright!
Therefore, there's an ironclad rule in the industry:
Strictly prohibit several teams from colluding privately to "join forces" to manipulate the price of a particular stock.
Once the evidence is conclusive, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will immediately send an investigation letter, resulting in fines and warnings at best,
and, at worst, license revocation and imprisonment for the person in charge.
This is why many private equity firms, even those within the same department, deliberately allocate funds to different teams, allowing them to act independently based on their own judgment.
This is euphemistically called "internal competition," but in reality, it's to avoid suspicion of "concerted action" and to thoroughly disperse risk.
"Oh, right," Su Hao seemed to remember something, turning to Liu Bo, who was responsible for information liaison,
"Has the research department released their report? The one I requested last night at the last minute, the latest analysis on the Greek debt crisis."
"Ah, here it comes! Manager!" Liu Bo quickly rummaged through a pile of documents, found the report, and handed it over with both hands.
"Manager, the research department's conclusion is... uh, Greece will ultimately not default on its debt. They've synthesized the opinions of major overseas investment banks and rating agencies, and they generally believe... the probability of the Greek government avoiding default is as high as... 97%!"
Su Hao expressionlessly flipped through the report, then looked up, his gaze sweeping over everyone sitting around the conference table with an almost tangible intensity:
"What about you? What do you all think?"
"We... we certainly think it's impossible to default!"
"Yeah, Manager, a sovereign nation announcing it won't pay its debts, that's... that's utterly ridiculous! Unless the Greek leaders have lost their minds!"
"Exactly, a 97% probability, that's basically an open secret, Greece will definitely pull through!"
Everyone echoed, after all, in their common sense and experience, a modern sovereign nation, especially an EU member state, publicly declaring a debt default is simply unimaginable, too insane!
“But…” Liang Haiyuan looked at Su Hao cautiously, with a hint of probing.
“Manager, you mean…you don’t believe that 97%? You…you’re convinced that Greece is… doomed this time, that it will definitely default?”
At this, everyone’s eyes immediately focused on Su Hao’s face.
While reading that strongly worded news report yesterday, that extremely strong, premonition-like feeling had lingered in his mind.
However, better safe than sorry, especially in this battlefield where hundreds of millions of dollars are involved; confirming it again wouldn’t hurt.
'Let me see…'
Su Hao lowered his head, not answering immediately, but carefully reviewing the report sent by the research department.
The report did analyze, hypothetically—and only hypothetically—
what impact would Greece have on global markets, especially the domestic market, if it really did default on its debt?
Generally speaking, the size of the domestic economy and its dependence on foreign trade mean that its direct connection with Europe isn't that fatal.
Even if Greece did default, its direct impact would probably be less than the previous stock market crash.
The real problem lies in—the financial sector! A domino effect!
If the European financial markets experience severe turmoil due to a Greek default, panic will spread like a virus.
Financial stocks will undoubtedly be the first to bear the brunt, receiving a heavy blow!
Furthermore, once the panic of a global economic recession spreads, people will tighten their purse strings, and consumer spending will decline, meaning retail, manufacturing, and other consumer-related stocks will also be hard-pressed to escape.
So, conversely, are there any sectors that might benefit?
The report also mentioned it. Of course! Risks and opportunities coexist.
If a Greek default leads to a significant depreciation of the Euro, it would actually be a huge boon for export-oriented domestic companies!
Their products would become much more price-competitive in the international market!
The report highlighted several key beneficiary industries: machinery manufacturing, textiles and light industry, electronics and home appliances…
“…”
Su Hao's gaze slowly swept over the list of potentially benefiting stocks in the report.
His fingers unconsciously rose—his right thumb, the one that had given him “inspiration” in countless trades—and lightly, almost imperceptibly, traced the paper printed with stock codes…
Suddenly!
“Sizzle!”
An extremely noticeable, static-like stinging sensation instantly shot through his fingertips!